Mau beli mobil?

Hati-hati pertimbangkan dengan matang … berbagai pemerintah negara maju sudah menyiapkan rencana berpindah ke electric vehicle (EV) … banyak yg melakukan R&D kearah EV sementara negara ini tidak, tetapi sekedar mendorong penerapan EURO 4 ke setiap kendaraan yg ada … itu tingkat polusi yg cukup rendah … kalau pas beli kendaraan baru dan gagal lolos Euro 4? … entahlah? Apa konsekuensinya? Entah juga?

Kedepan, kita akan jadi ladang buangan kendaraan yg sudah mulai ketinggalan zaman … China, India, Eropa, Amerika sudah go electric … banyak negara maju berpindah ke renewable energy, wind, solar … beberapa perusahaan minyak dunia mulai berpindah bidang usaha menjadi penyedia teknologi renewable energy atau menjadi pengelola energy baru itu.

Bahan bakar minyak sudah tidak memberikan profit besar seperti dulu, banyak tentangan penggunaan bahan bakar minyak, karena tidak ramah lingkungan, dan cadangan minyak bumi tinggal 53 tahun lagi … sudah harus mulai ditinggalkan, berpindah ke bidang energy lain yang lebih ramah lingkungan.

Setiap negara maju punya rencana jangka panjang, bukan satu perubahan yang sekonyong konyong ditetapkan (itu kentir namanya), biasanya mereka punya gagasan untuk 20 tahun kedepan. Banyak negara sudah siap berpindah ke energy ramah lingkungan, ada yang belakangan menyatakan mobil berbahan bakar minyak (bensin / diesel) akan dilarang digunakan di tahun 2030 … hanya EV yang boleh beredar. Kemungkinan, gagasan berpindah ke EV itu sudah sejak tahun 2010 disiapkan.

Pabrikan mobil besar Jerman, seperti Mercedez, BMW, Audi, apalagi Porsche selalu memulai suatu ide yang butuh satu rangkaian panjang R&D minimal 5 tahun bahkan lebih, bisa 10 tahun sebelum satu kendaraan bisa diproduksi dan dijual. BMW sudah punya mobil versi electric seperti I3 dan I7 (sudah dipasarkan beberapa tahun ini), Audi menyiapkan kendaraan electric berteknologi formula 1, Porsche yang dikenal sebagai produsen mobil sport kelas atas sudah siap dengan Porsche Taycan bermesin listrik yang akan dijual di tahun 2019.

Diluar Jerman, sudah ada Tesla yang sudah dijual beberapa tahun belakangan, ada Nissan Leaf yang tentu saja bekerja sama dengan partner bisnisnya, Renault dan Dacia, sudah dijual selama beberapa tahun belakangan juga. China sudah menjadi juara dalam produksi mobil listrik, juga menetapkan tahun 2030 tidak ada lagi penjualan mobil bermesin bakar minyak, begitu juga India. General Motor sedang menguji EV nya, dikatakan punya jarak tempuh paling jauh dengan waktu pengisian battery hanya 10 menit.

Sepeda motor listrik sudah banyak dibuat, baik itu oleh produsen yang baru muncul maupun oleh pabrikan kawakan terkenal, BMW sudah siap, Yamaha, Honda, Kawasaki juga sudah siap. Harley Davidson sudah menyiapkan versi electric. Ada Vespa Piaggio, Viar, Zero, Kuberg, ReVolt, dan banyak lagi.

Sepeda listrik sudah dijual sejak lama, sudah lebih dari 10 tahun yang lalu, merk Selis (sepeda listrik) sudah lama dijual di supermarket besar. Paket konversi sepeda biasa menjadi sepeda listrik sudah lama dijual online.

Setiap pabrik otomotif sebenarnya sudah punya EV, mereka terus melakukan R&D pencapaian jarak tempuh yang lebih jauh, kecepatan yang lebih tinggi dengan percepatan yang lebih responsif. Sudah banyak yang bisa mencapai percepatan 0-100 km/h dalam 3 detik. Yang bisa menempuh jarak 200 km dalam 1 kali charge sudah banyak … mereka mau lebih jauh lagi.

Kereta listrik … lebih gila lagi … sekedar 200 km/h itu sudah biasa, China sudah punya kereta peluru dengan kecepatan 600 km/h.

Di negeri ini tidak terlihat punya rencana pasti untuk beralih ke renewable energy padahal kita punya banyak kemungkinan itu, kita masih bekutat dengan pengadaan listrik sampai ke pelosok sana … masih pada penyiapan jaringan. Banyak negara sudah belajar kenal renewable energy, memasang solar cell dan wind turbine … banyak perusahaan minyak dunia beralih ke teknologi renewable energy, menjadi pengelola jaringan sumber renewable energy atau malah menjadi penyedia teknologi wind turbine lepas pantai … sementara Pertamina baru belajar lepas dari jaringan mafia minyak!

Masih banyak lagi pembahasan soal ini, lebih panjang dan njlimet …

1) Apakah kita perlu ikutan dalam perlombaan penguasaan teknologi perlistrikan itu?
3) Atau masih tergiur untuk punya mobil nasional versi mesin bakar (combustion engine)?

Untuk kedua pertanyaan tersebut diatas … kita sudah ketinggalan minimal 20 tahun!

Jakarta 3 September 2018
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Ternyata perkiraan saya (tulisan) diatas masih lebih mild dari keadaan terakhir. Berikut transcript dari video reportage The Economist.

2018 merupakan starting point.
2025 mobil mesin combustion tidak boleh masuk kota.
2040 tidak ada lagi penjualan mobil mesin combustion
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Electric cars will come of age in 2018 | The Economist

00:03 2018 is set to be the year the world
00:06 fully embraces the electric car will see
00:10 a global tipping point for drivers as
00:12 electric models start competing with
00:15 petrol and diesel cars head-to-head in
00:18 2018 for the first time we’re going to
00:21 see that it’s cheaper to buy an electric
00:23 car than a petrol or diesel car a byte
00:25 cheaper we mean the total cost of
00:27 ownership we’re going to see
00:28 acceleration of the whole idea of cars
00:30 powered by electricity but will also be
00:33 confronted with the uncomfortable truth
00:35 about the impact of going electric
00:39 [Music]
00:49 [Music]
00:52 they’ve long been vaunted as the vehicle
00:55 of the future
00:56 oddly an electric car more like an
00:59 electric bath chair for a long time
01:01 electric cars had a reputation for being
01:03 like milk floats but from laughing stock
01:05 in the mid-1980s to rising stock today
01:09 electric cars have come of age new
01:13 technology means the range is much
01:14 better and some of these cars can
01:16 outperform the fastest supercars when it
01:18 comes to acceleration batteries are much
01:20 cheaper than better than they used to be
01:22 a better battery has been the holy grail
01:24 of the electric car makers for some time
01:27 [Music]
01:29 prices of batteries have more or less
01:31 harmed
01:32 since about 2012 in 2013 a Nissan Leaf
01:36 could travel about 120 kilometers now
01:40 cars are travelling 500 kilometers on a
01:43 single chart 2018 will be a tipping
01:49 point for the adoption of electric cars
01:50 because the more people who do it the
01:52 more other people will want to do it
01:53 there will be demand to build charging
01:56 points and other infrastructure for them
01:58 and that will make other people more
01:59 likely to buy electric cars so you get
02:02 this snowball of that companies are
02:03 clambering to take the lead with
02:05 billions in investments and promises to
02:08 make the switch it’s very clear to us
02:10 that an electrified car is what
02:12 consumers want 2020 all of our new
02:16 mirrors will be electrified why are we
02:19 making electric cars to accelerate the
02:21 transition to sustainable transport but
02:24 it’s pressure from governments that’s
02:25 driving this push from the industry
02:28 we’ve seen Britain and France saying
02:30 you’re not going to be able to buy a
02:31 purely fossil fuel car by 2040 we’re
02:34 seeing cities like Paris Mexico City
02:37 Athens
02:38 Madrid saying they’re not even going to
02:40 allow diesel cars into the city after
02:43 2025 we can expect to see more of these
02:46 sorts of tightening of the regulation
02:47 around fossil fuel cars coming in 2018
02:54 and it’s an unlikely country that’s
02:57 leading the pack all the action on
03:01 electric vehicles is happening in China
03:03 it wants to become a leader in the
03:07 production of electric vehicles just as
03:09 it is not a leader in the production of
03:11 the internal combustion engine in 2016
03:14 China brought more than 40 percent of
03:16 the world’s electric cars China is very
03:20 well aware that pollution is a
03:23 hot-button issue politically socially
03:26 culturally and so if they can get more
03:29 electric vehicles onto the streets it
03:31 doesn’t look as though they’re doing
03:32 something to tackle this these fume free
03:37 cars will make our cities cleaner the
03:40 electric vehicle industry sells itself
03:42 to consumers as this futuristic
03:44 environmentally friendly means of
03:46 transport but uncomfortable truth lurk
03:49 behind the electric car revolution the
03:52 dirty secret of electric vehicles is
03:54 that often they’re powered by
03:56 electricity that itself is produced by
04:00 dirty fuels such as coal
04:03 in order to be fully clean they need a
04:07 clean bread the napkin cost trillions of
04:10 dollars
04:11 the rise of electric cars will challenge
04:13 the world’s thirst for oil it could
04:16 spark a global shift of power from
04:19 countries that have enjoyed the
04:20 influence that oil has bought the
04:25 control of oil has been terrific ly
04:27 important during the 20th century oils
04:29 get to become much less important if you
04:32 take the Middle East conflict tends to
04:35 increase when oil prices are low the
04:40 more we use electric vehicles the more
04:42 risk there is the instability across
04:45 oil-producing nations is going to
04:47 increase beyond oil attention will turn
04:49 to lithium electric car batteries which
04:52 rely on the mineral Cobalt
04:54 two thirds of the world’s cobalt comes
04:56 from one country the Democratic Republic
04:59 of Congo Congo is not only one of the
05:03 world’s poorest countries but it is also
05:05 a country which is renowned for violence
05:08 for for corruption for the use of of
05:12 child labor and for environmental
05:14 degradation demand for cobalt has
05:16 doubled over the past five years and is
05:19 set to triple by 2020 there’s not nearly
05:22 as much attention on dirty cobalt as
05:26 there is on dirty oil or blood or oil or
05:28 blood diamonds but this could have
05:30 really besmirched the industry’s
05:32 reputation almost before it gets going
05:36 but the electric car revolution is
05:39 coming after 2018 there will be no
05:42 turning back the combustion engine as we
05:44 know it was invented in the 1880s and
05:46 it’s had a pretty good run there is
05:48 almost unstoppable momentum behind the
05:52 electric vehicle so eventually the
05:54 internal combustion engine will go when
05:59 it comes to the cars that most people
06:01 drive and electric cars really are the
06:04 future
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